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暴雨條件下小型水庫預警模式研究
李春江1,2,史學建1,2,張寶森1,2,時芳欣1,2,汪自力1,2
(1.黃河水利科學研究院,河南 鄭州450003; 2.水利部堤防安全與病害防治工程技術研究中心,河南 鄭州450003)
Study on Early Warning Mode of Small Reservoir Under Rainstorm Condition
 LI Chunjiang1,2, SHI Xuejian1,2, ZHANG Baosen1,2, SHI Fangxin1,2, WANG Zili1,2
(1.Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 2.Research Center on Levee Safety and Disaster Prevention, MWR, Zhengzhou 450003, China)

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人民黃河
  2019,Vol. 41(9): 55
  防洪治河
暴雨條件下小型水庫預警模式研究
李春江1,2,史學建1,2,張寶森1,2,時芳欣1,2,汪自力1,2
(1.黃河水利科學研究院,河南 鄭州450003; 2.水利部堤防安全與病害防治工程技術研究中心,河南 鄭州450003))
doi:
Study on Early Warning Mode of Small Reservoir Under Rainstorm Condition
 LI Chunjiang1,2, SHI Xuejian1,2, ZHANG Baosen1,2, SHI Fangxin1,2, WANG Zili1,2
(1.Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 2.Research Center on Levee Safety and Disaster Prevention, MWR, Zhengzhou 450003, China)
全文: PDF (1.70MB)
摘要: 暴雨來臨前,為提前預警小型水庫壩前水位,充分準備防洪調度及搶險方案,基于歷史降雨資料及設計資料,采用降雨-徑流模型,預測不同暴雨強度條件下的壩前水位,分析水位變化對大壩的影響,最后構建氣象預報-水位預警-防洪搶險三位一體的小型水庫汛期安全預警模式。該模式可以解決小流域內水庫安全度汛的問題。以花果山水庫為例,根據該小流域內近50 a的降雨資料,預測基于灰色理論的流域內小尺度預報的2018年暴雨、設計暴雨和基于國家氣象部門大尺度預報的極端暴雨等3種模式下的壩前水位,對比分析得出極端暴雨條件下會有漫壩風險,同時提出了該水庫藍色、黃色、紅色三級水位預警方案以及應對不同水位預警的應急調度及搶險措施。
關鍵詞:
Abstract: Before the rainstorm comes, reservoir water level should be predicted in advance as an early warning, so as to fully prepare for flood control and rescue plan. Based on historical rainfall data and design data, the paper predicted the reservoir water level in different rainstorm intensity conditions by using rainfallrunoff model and analyzed the impact of water level change on dam safety. Finally, a safety warning mode for small reservoirs in flood season was built by integrating meteorological, water level and flood control. This model could solve the problem of reservoir operating safely of small watersheds in flood season. In the application of this model to the Huaguoshan Reservoir, the rainfall data for the last 50 years in the small watershed were collected, and the water level under the rainstorm of three models, such as the forecast rainstorm of 2018 based on the grey theory by a small scale, the design rainstorm and the extreme rainstorm based on the large scale forecast of National Meteorological Department was predicted. After the comparative analysis, the result shows that there will be a risk of flood overtopping under extreme rainstorm conditions. At the same time, the threelevel warning of water level is formulated by drawing blue line, yellow line and red line, and different emergency dispatch and emergency measures are put forward to deal with different earlywarnings. This mode provides scientific guarantee for the safe operation of the reservoir during the flood season.
Key words: small reservoir; early warning of water level; rainstorm condition; Huaguoshan Reservoir
收稿日期:
基金資助: 國家重點研發計劃項目(2016YFC0401610);國家自然科學基金青年基金資助項目(51809103);黃河水利科學研究院基本科研業務費項目(HKY-JBYW-2017-01,HKY-JBYW-2017-20,HKY-JBYW-2018-06)
作者簡介: 李春江(1988—),男,河南滎陽人,工程師,主要從事防汛減災及冰凌監測預報技術方面的研究工作
江苏7位数开奖历史