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黃河水量調度徑流預報方法研究
 王春青,陳冬伶
(黃河水利委員會 水文局,河南 鄭州 450004)
Study on Runoff Forecasting Method for Water Regulation of the Yellow River
 WANG Chunqing, CHEN Dongling
(Hydrological Bureau, YRCC, Zhengzhou 450004, China)

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人民黃河
  2019,Vol. 41(9): 20
  專題研究
黃河水量調度徑流預報方法研究
 王春青,陳冬伶
(黃河水利委員會 水文局,河南 鄭州 450004))
doi:
Study on Runoff Forecasting Method for Water Regulation of the Yellow River
 WANG Chunqing, CHEN Dongling
(Hydrological Bureau, YRCC, Zhengzhou 450004, China)
全文: PDF (1.70MB)
摘要: 介紹了服務于黃河水量調度的中長期徑流預報技術方法、主要模型、預報系統及應用情況,并對未來黃河流域徑流預報發展方向進行展望。黃河中長期徑流預報模型從每個控制站點水文序列的影響因子和自身演變規律出發,根據各站點不同時期、不同影響因素,選擇適當的統計方法分別建立。非汛期徑流預報模型主要以前期徑流、降水為預報因子,采用多元回歸分析、門限回歸分析和時間序列分析等方法建立;汛期徑流受降雨影響強烈,流域降水主要受大氣環流等因子影響,因此從前期環流因子中挑選預報因子,建立了汛期徑流預報模型;天然徑流量預報模型主要采用實測徑流還原、時間序列分析及大氣海洋物理因子相關等方法建立。黃河中長期徑流預報模型及預報系統的建立,提高了黃河流域徑流預報技術水平和能力,在1999—2018年20 a的水量調度中,提供了準確的年度水量預報和旬月徑流預報,其中每年10月中下旬發布的花園口站年度天然徑流總量預報平均誤差為3.7%,最小預報誤差為0.6%。
關鍵詞:
Abstract: This paper focused on the medium and longterm runoff forecasting technology, main models, forecasting system and its application in the Yellow River basin, which served for water regulation and looked forward to the future development direction of runoff forecasting in the Yellow River basin. The medium and longterm runoff forecasting model of the Yellow River was based on the influencing factors of hydrological series and their own evolution law at each control station, according to the different periods and different influencing factors at each station, appropriate statistical methods were selected to establish the model respectively. The nonflood season runoff forecasting model was mainly based on the previous runoff and precipitation as forecasting factors and was established by multiple regression analysis, threshold regression analysis and time series analysis. The runoff in flood season was strongly influenced by precipitation, and the precipitation was mainly affected by atmospheric circulation, so the forecasting factors were selected from the previous circulation factors and the runoff forecasting model in flood season was established. The natural runoff forecasting model was mainly established by the methods of observation runoff reduction, time series analysis and correlation of atmospheric and oceanic physical factors. The establishment of medium and longterm runoff forecasting model and forecasting system of the Yellow River had improved the technical level and ability of runoff forecasting in the Yellow River basin. In the 20year integrated water resources management in the Yellow River basin from 1999 to 2018, accurate annual water forecasting and tenday and monthly runoff forecasting had been provided, in which the annual average forecast error of the total natural runoff at Huayuankou Station was 3.7% and the minimum forecast error was 0.6%.
Key words: runoff forecasting; medium and longterm; water regulation; multiple regression; Yellow River
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作者簡介: 王春青(1972—),男,山東博興人,教授級高級工程師,主要從事氣象、水文水資源研究工作
江苏7位数开奖历史