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黃河近百年徑流演變特征分析
 胡慧杰1,崔凱1,曹茜1,李姝蕾2,常肖杰3,沈麗娜1
(1.河南黃河水文勘測設計院,河南 鄭州 450004; 2.黃河勘測規劃設計研究院有限公司, 河南 鄭州 450003; 3.河南省許昌水文水資源勘測局,河南 許昌 461000)
Analysis of the Characteristics of Runoff Evolution in Yellow River in Recent 100 Years
 HU Huijie1, CUI Kai1, CAO Qian1, LI Shulei2, CHANG Xiaojie3, SHEN Lina1
(1.Henan Yellow River Hydrological Survey and Design Institute, Zhengzhou 450004, China; 2.Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450003, China; 3.Xuchang Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau, Xuchang 461000, China)

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人民黃河
  2019,Vol. 41(9): 14
  專題研究
黃河近百年徑流演變特征分析
 胡慧杰1,崔凱1,曹茜1,李姝蕾2,常肖杰3,沈麗娜1
(1.河南黃河水文勘測設計院,河南 鄭州 450004; 2.黃河勘測規劃設計研究院有限公司, 河南 鄭州 450003; 3.河南省許昌水文水資源勘測局,河南 許昌 461000))
doi:
Analysis of the Characteristics of Runoff Evolution in Yellow River in Recent 100 Years
 HU Huijie1, CUI Kai1, CAO Qian1, LI Shulei2, CHANG Xiaojie3, SHEN Lina1
(1.Henan Yellow River Hydrological Survey and Design Institute, Zhengzhou 450004, China; 2.Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450003, China; 3.Xuchang Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau, Xuchang 461000, China)
全文: PDF (1.66MB)
摘要: 為探究黃河流域徑流演變特征,對花園口水文站1919—2016近百年的天然徑流資料進行分析,采用有序聚類分析法、Mann-Kendall突變檢驗法、滑動t平均法分析了花園口水文站徑流時間序列的突變性,利用線性趨勢回歸檢驗法、Mann-Kendall趨勢檢驗法、Spearmann秩次相關檢驗法分析了突變點前后徑流時間序列的趨勢性。結果表明:1933—1934年、1989—1990年徑流突變較為明顯,前者突變主要是自然因素(氣溫、降水)大尺度的變化引起,后者主要是人為因素(用水增加、下墊面改變)流域尺度的變化引起;1919—1933年的趨勢顯著,通過0.10的顯著性檢驗,表現為下降趨勢;1934—1989年、1990—2016年的趨勢較為平穩。
關鍵詞:
Abstract: In order to explore the evolution characteristics of runoff in the Yellow River basin, this paper analyzed the natural runoff data of Huayuankou Hydrological Station from 1919 to 2016 for nearly 100 years. The order of clustering analysis, MannKendall mutation test and sliding taverage method were used to analyze the mutation points of the runoff sequence in Huayuankou Hydrological Station. Linear trend regression test, MannKendall trend test and Spearmann rank correlation test were used to analyze the trend of the runoff series before and after the mutation point. The results show that the runoff mutations in the Yellow River basin were relatively obvious at 1933-1934 and 1989-1990. The mutation of the former is mainly caused by largescale changes in natural factors (such as temperature, precipitation), and the latter is mainly caused by changes in the basin scale of artificial factors (water use increasing and the bottom surface changing). In 1919-1933, the trend of runoff change is relatively significant, passed 0.10 of the significant level test, showing a downward trend. In 1934-1989 and 1990-2016, the trends of runoff changed are more smoothly.
Key words: runoff; evolution characteristics; mutation points; trend; Huayuankou Hydrological Station; Yellow River
收稿日期:
基金資助:
作者簡介: 胡慧杰(1992—),女,河南周口人,助理工程師,碩士,從事水資源管理與調度、水文統計分析等工作
江苏7位数开奖历史